US: Market risks from Trump policy signals – Rabobank

Rabobank Senior Global Strategist Michael Every reviews President Trump’s State of the Union remarks, highlighting policy ideas on tariffs, healthcare subsidies, AI datacentre electricity pricing, retirement schemes, voting ID and a new War on Fraud. Every also notes Trump’s hard line on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, suggesting potential geopolitical headlines that could affect markets in the near term.

Trump agenda and Iran stance eyed

"In the US State of the Union President Trump: reiterated an aspiration to replace income tax with tariff revenue; proposed shifting subsidies from health insurers to consumers; underlined the prices of US prescription medicines are lowered by increasing the prices in other economies; stated AI datacentres will pay separate, higher electricity prices; flagged opening up the retirement scheme available to federal workers to the private sector; argued to prevent members of Congress from profiting from inside information (“Did Nancy Pelosi stand up if she’s here?”); announced a new War on Fraud under VP Vance; pushed the SAVE America Act which enforces proof of ID to vote; and claimed that 35 million people told him that the Prime Minister of Pakistan would have died in a war with India if not for his involvement."

"However, Trump underlined that while he prefers diplomacy, Iran is continuing with its “sinister plans” and is refusing to say, “We will never have a nuclear weapon” - and he will never allow them to have one."

"That sounds like certain headlines may fall on market screens in the near future even if that rhetorical --and literal-- bomb wasn’t dropped at the end of the SoTU, as some had thought could complete its political theatre."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)